| Mike Nolan 2005-04-11, 5:59 pm |
| "George John" <george@neosoft.com> writes:
quote:
>Note: the online calculator does use the different formula for unrated
>and provisionally rated players. What it does not take into account is
>if all prior games have been wins or losses, which I think is rare.
Not as rare as you might think. Of 71,024 players with provisional
ratings earned after 1/1/2004, 5406 or 7.6% have either all wins or
all losses. (Of those, 5033 have all losses.)
The problem is that for provisionally rated players the first step is
to compute an adjusted rating. Without knowing how the provisionally
rated players did against their other opponents, the best you can do
is estimate their adjusted rating.
Using everyone's post-event ratings does result in a much closer estimate
of your own post-event rating, but of course if you know everyone's
else's post-event rating, you know your post-event rating, too, making
the calculator kind of unnecessary. :-)
--
Mike Nolan
|