Chess politics - Predictions for Linares, '05 : How well did I do?

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Predictions for Linares, '05 : How well did I do?

Gunsberg

2005-03-10, 5:51 pm

Gunsberg Feb 1, 4:51 pm show options

Newsgroups: rec.games.chess.misc, rec.games.chess.politics
From: "Gunsberg" <gunsb...@kasparovchess.com> - Find messages by this
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Date: 1 Feb 2005 16:51:09 -0800
Local: Tues, Feb 1 2005 4:51 pm
Subject: Predictions for Linares, '05
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I picked Topalov to finish 1st, and he managed to tie Kasparov by
beting him in the last game! He finished 1 half point higher than I
predicted. I correctly guessed that he would lose 1 game, but only win
4=2E Oh well.

A huge success for him, and he has gained the most from the event

Leko was a disappointment. I expected that he would be a bit burnt out,
but I frankly didn't expect that to matter that much. His recent play
has been so impressive that I thought that he would be able to score
wins versus the tailenders. He really gave it a try in his last round
game vs. Vallejo Pons, playing down to just Kings and Rooks. But there
was nothing there. Even an out of form Leko is very difficult to
defeat, evidently. He'll be back--I expect him to give Kramnik, Anand
and Topalov a run for their money.

I did a poor job on picking Adams. He was out of form, and never seemed
to recover from his loss against Topalov. His play against Kasparov was
disasterous, otherwise he ends up at +1. His win against Anand somewhat
salvages the event from being a debacle for him. He beat Vishy at
Linares back in 2002, but generally speaking, he has been a "good
customer" for Anand. That last victory must therefore be satisfying. I
correctly guessed the number of Adams' victories, but he lost 3 games.
I expected that he might have "solved" Kasimdzhanov, but he was not
able to get revenge for his FIDE WC defeat.

I also did a poor job of guessing Garry's results. He seemed so
dispirited about the match negotiations that fell through, and he
hadn't played a Top event in quite a while. The rust showed a bit
against Topalov, Anand and Leko, but he made the most of his chances
versus the weaker or out of form players. I correctly guessed the
number of Kasparov's losses, but he won many more games than I had
reckoned.

Anand was in relatively poor form during Linares, and he was a bit
fortunate to finish at + 1. He really should have lost to Vallejo in
Round #12. I correctly guessed that he would have just 2 wins.
Generally, he was solid enough to avoid defeat. Kasparov never really
pushed him in their games.

I was close to the mark with Vallejo Pons, figuring that he would be
outclassed. I didn't expect that he would be beaten twice by Topalov or
by Kasparov. I'm not surprised that he beat Kasimdzhanov. Vallejo has a
bright future, and could well break into the Top 10, although I don't
expect that he'll be a Title contender. He'll recover from this event.

Woohoo! I correctly predicted that Kasimdzhanov would not win a game,
and that he would finish at -4. I correctly rpedicted the exact number
of wins (0), draws (8), and losses (4) that Kasimdzhanov would accrue.

He is a talented and improving player who is an interesting addition
to the crowd on the tournament circuit. However, it is clear that his
FIDE WC Championship Title was a fluky result. He is ranked =3D24th in
the world, at 2678. So he could easily cross the 2700 threshhold, which
would place him in the Top 15. It will be a challenge for him to ever
crack the Top 10.

Especially since he might now miss out on some tournament
invitations.

1st Veselin Topalov 7.5 ( + 4 =3D 7 - 1)

=3D2 Peter Leko 7.0 ( + 3 =3D 8 - 1)

=3D2 Michael Adams 7.0 ( + 2 =3D 10 - 0)
Beats Kasparov and Kasimdhaniv

4th Garry Kasparov 6.5 ( + 2 =3D 9 - 1)
Beats Anand

5th Viswana=ADthan Anand 5.5 ( + 2 =3D 7 - 3)

6th Francisco Vallej=ADo Pons 4.5 ( + 1 =3D 7 - 4)

7th Rustam Kasimdzhanov 4.0 ( + 0 =3D 8 - 4)

NYS Chess

2005-03-12, 9:50 pm

Nice